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F-001 · published · 2026-07-28

PortWatch's Indian port-call series is unfit for publication from March 2025

The claim

The 40–49% collapse IMF PortWatch reports in Indian container port calls between mid-2025 and March 2026 did not happen in the physical trade. US customs declarations show imports from India flat to strongly up across the same window, and goods cannot reach the United States without leaving India. The series should not be cited for this period.

Indian container-ship port calls against US goods imports from India, both indexed 6080100120140202420252026indexed 2026-02-25 2026-04-09 2026-04-09 2026-04-09 2026-04-16 2026-05-22 TT-005 TT-002 n = 24 shared months · 2024-06 → 2026-05 · base window mean (2024-06→2026-05) · retrieved 2026-08-0681 policy events in window, showing the 6 most recentCrossing two series does not connect them.

From the crossing india-calls-vs-us-imports-2026-07 · r = 0.166 · window 2024-06→2026-05

What would prove this wrong

Evidence that Indian container exports to destinations other than the United States fell by roughly 40% in this window while US-bound trade held up. That would make both instruments right. It requires a third source — EU or intra-Asia import statistics — which the rack does not yet hold.

What it changes

TT-002's Indian series is withdrawn from every public surface from 2025-03-01. Corridors Letter No.1 is held: its headline finding rests on this window. TT-005 was built specifically to carry the load TT-002 cannot.

What it rests on

Indian container-ship port calls reported
tt002.india.container-calls
grade when published now withdrawn
US goods imports from India reported
tt005.india.us-imports
grade when published published

Grades are frozen at publication. If a series has since been withdrawn, that is shown — the claim was made on what was known then.

Cite this

Singh, M. "PortWatch's Indian port-call series is unfit for publication from March 2025". Trimtab finding F-001, 2026-07-28. https://trimtabist.com/findings/f-001
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