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The US Trade Ledger — every US container gateway, every partner country, every month — and what each one actually paid at the border.

The day India lost its duty-free pass, the receipts jumped 12 points

precision · 2019-01 → 2019-12 · verdict: CONFIRMED

What was registered, before the data was touched

US withdrawal of India’s GSP benefits (effective 2019-06-05) produces a discrete, sustained step up in India’s dutiable share in June 2019 (≥8pp vs May, sustained ≥8pp through December), with no non-GSP donor origin (China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan) stepping ≥3pp in the same month. Registered 2026-08-09 before the run.

What the record shows

India’s dutiable share held 33.8–37.5% for the five months to May 2019, jumped to 47.9% in June — a +12.2 point step in one month — and held 45–47% for the rest of the year. The registered donors moved −2.5 to +1.5pp in the same month. The sharpest-dated natural experiment in the receipts corpus: a policy change with a statutory effective date of June 5, visible as a cliff in the June collections. The corridor now ruled in the 2025 suppression study had been re-priced once before, six years earlier.

48 24 2018-06: 37 % dutiable2018-07: 36 % dutiable2018-08: 33 % dutiable2018-09: 32 % dutiable2018-10: 33 % dutiable2018-11: 34 % dutiable2018-12: 33 % dutiable2019-01: 35 % dutiable2019-02: 38 % dutiable2019-03: 34 % dutiable2019-04: 37 % dutiable2019-05: 36 % dutiable2019-06: 48 % dutiable2019-07: 47 % dutiable2019-08: 46 % dutiable2019-09: 45 % dutiable2019-10: 46 % dutiable2019-11: 46 % dutiable2019-12: 45 % dutiable 45 2018-062019-032019-12
Share of Indian import value dutiable at all, monthly. The June 2019 step is the GSP withdrawal, dated to the month. Source: US Census imports-for-consumption (TT-010).

What would prove this wrong

A gradual rise, a pre-dated rise, or any donor stepping ≥3pp in June 2019 would have broken the attribution; none occurred.

Cite this

In print: “The day India lost its duty-free pass, the receipts jumped 12 points” — a pre-registered event study by the Trimtab US Trade Ledger, ruled 2026-08-06, from US Census port records and 174,440 vessel stays (NOAA AIS, 2018–2024) — trimtabist.com/atlas/india-gsp-2019
For the record: Event Atlas · india-gsp-2019 · CONFIRMED · ruled 2026-08-06

This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the original stays on the record.

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