Trimtabist
The US Trade Ledger — every US container gateway, every partner country, every month. Census-recorded, AIS-verified.

India’s 50% tariff didn’t just borrow cargo — it suppressed the corridor

magnitude · 2025-08 → 2026-05 · verdict: CONFIRMED — STRONGER THAN REGISTERED

What was registered, before the data was touched

The Aug 2025 tariff produces front-running (Aug–Sep surge), then payback (an Oct dip), then reversion to trend — the pattern all prior tariff events showed.

What the record shows

The front-run and payback arrived as registered: +21pp above the donor counterfactual in August 2025, −19pp in October. The reversion never came. India has now run 14–30pp below counterfactual for eight consecutive months — roughly 1.5 Mt of cumulative shortfall against the donor pool (world ex-India ex-China ex-Vietnam), which grew throughout. Raw year-on-year figures make the later months look like normalisation; the counterfactual shows suppression. This is the difference method rule 12 exists to catch.

22 11 2025-05: -1 pp2025-06: -10 pp2025-07: 2 pp2025-08: 22 pp2025-09: 13 pp2025-10: -20 pp2025-11: -31 pp2025-12: -28 pp2026-01: -14 pp2026-02: -19 pp2026-03: -18 pp2026-04: -20 pp2026-05: -9 pp -9 2025-052025-112026-05
India’s containerised imports vs the donor counterfactual, percentage-point gap by month (DiD). Zero = growing with the world; below = suppression.

What would prove this wrong

India returning to within ±5pp of the donor pool for three consecutive months would close the suppression claim and reclassify this as front-run-and-payback.

Cite this

In print: “India’s 50% tariff didn’t just borrow cargo — it suppressed the corridor” — a pre-registered event study by the Trimtab US Trade Ledger, ruled 2026-08-06, from US Census port records and 174,440 vessel stays (NOAA AIS, 2018–2024) — trimtabist.com/atlas/india-tariff-suppression
For the record: Event Atlas · india-tariff-suppression · CONFIRMED — STRONGER THAN REGISTERED · ruled 2026-08-06

This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the original stays on the record.

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