Importers of HS 8515.90 (of welding machines and apparatus) from Japan actually paid 12.3% on the taxed portion of the value in 2026-06 — 12.25% across everything shipped, taxed or not. Measured from official duty receipts, not the rulebook: the statutory MFN base rate on this code is 1.6%. Over the window the rate on the taxed portion moved 1.19% → 12.3%, with the largest single step +9.8pp in 2025-04. Measured from official US duty receipts · as-of 2026-06 · confidence: measured, not modelled. The HTS base rate is 1.6% — importers actually paid 12.3%, so the trade-war overlay added 10.7 pts, measured at the border (not a summed rulebook estimate). Reproduce exactly: tariff_story(hs: "8515.90", origin: "Japan") · see it at trimtabist.com/tariffs
HS 8515.90. The schedule base rate is 1.6%; importers from Japan actually paid 12.3% on the dutiable value in 2026-06 — the trade-war overlay added 10.7 points, measured at the border. Measured, not modelled.
Over the window the collected rate moved 1.19% (2023-07) → 12.3% (2026-06), largest single step +9.8pp in 2025-04.
Japan's lower duty (12.25% vs 38%) lets it price up to 22.9% above China at the factory and still match on duty-inclusive customs cost. But on the LATEST measured prices, China actually lands cheaper — $19.51/kg vs $48.4/kg (duty in, freight out).
14 Chapter-99 measures name Japan; scope mapping is partial (several annexes are PDFs) — absence never means exemption. They do not sum, and some are product-specific — the collected rate above is the composed truth.
All goods from Japan · the whole tariff ledger · reproduce: tariff_story(hs: "8515.90", origin: "Japan") via /connect. Not customs or legal advice.