Importers of HS 8512.20 (visual signaling equipment) from Japan actually paid 11.25% on the taxed portion of the value in 2026-06 — 7.55% across everything shipped, taxed or not. Measured from official duty receipts, not the rulebook: the statutory MFN base rate on this code is 2.5%. Over the window the rate on the taxed portion moved 2.5% → 11.25%, with the largest single step +13.5pp in 2025-05. Measured from official US duty receipts · as-of 2026-06 · confidence: measured, not modelled. The HTS base rate is 2.5% — importers actually paid 11.25%, so the trade-war overlay added 8.8 pts, measured at the border (not a summed rulebook estimate). Reproduce exactly: tariff_story(hs: "8512.20", origin: "Japan") · see it at trimtabist.com/tariffs
HS 8512.20. The schedule base rate is 2.5%; importers from Japan actually paid 11.25% on the dutiable value in 2026-06 — the trade-war overlay added 8.8 points, measured at the border. Measured, not modelled.
Over the window the collected rate moved 2.5% (2023-07) → 11.25% (2026-06), largest single step +13.5pp in 2025-05.
Japan's lower duty (7.55% vs 37.31%) lets it price up to 27.7% above China at the factory and still match on duty-inclusive customs cost. But on the LATEST measured prices, China actually lands cheaper — $10.08/kg vs $12.73/kg (duty in, freight out).
14 Chapter-99 measures name Japan; scope mapping is partial (several annexes are PDFs) — absence never means exemption. They do not sum, and some are product-specific — the collected rate above is the composed truth.
All goods from Japan · the whole tariff ledger · 7 CBP rulings cite this code · reproduce: tariff_story(hs: "8512.20", origin: "Japan") via /connect. Not customs or legal advice.