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The US Trade Ledger — every US container gateway, every partner country, every month — and what each one actually paid at the border.

A 13-month tariff moved the laptop industry out of China — repealing it brought almost nothing back

precision · 2025-01 → 2026-06 · verdict: CONFIRMED

What was registered, before the data was touched

On HS 847130: (a) China’s share of world imports falls ≥45pp within 5 months of 2025-02; (b) world totals hold within ±20% of the 2024-H2 mean during the collapse (ruling out demand collapse or reclassification); (c) after removal (China burden <2% by 2026-03), China recovers less than half its lost share by 2026-06. Registered 2026-08-09 before the run.

What the record shows

China’s share of US laptop imports went 65% (February 2025) → 7% (June) — a 58-point collapse in five months under an 18.8% burden — while world totals held within ±18% of baseline: every dollar China lost is visible arriving in Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico. Then the tariff came off (China’s burden <1% from March 2026) and the industry did not come home: 11% share by June 2026 — 7% of the loss recovered. Supply chains are a one-way door: the tariff was temporary, the exodus was not.

69 34 2024-07: 69 % of world2024-08: 64 % of world2024-09: 66 % of world2024-10: 66 % of world2024-11: 65 % of world2024-12: 64 % of world2025-01: 68 % of world2025-02: 65 % of world2025-03: 36 % of world2025-04: 18 % of world2025-05: 10 % of world2025-06: 7 % of world2025-07: 5 % of world2025-08: 4 % of world2025-09: 4 % of world2025-10: 2 % of world2025-11: 2 % of world2025-12: 3 % of world2026-01: 2 % of world2026-02: 3 % of world2026-03: 3 % of world2026-04: 6 % of world2026-05: 8 % of world2026-06: 11 % of world 11 2024-072025-062026-06
China’s share of US portable-computer imports (HS 847130), monthly. The tariff window is 2025-02 to 2026-02; the share never returns. Source: TT-010.

What would prove this wrong

A falling world total would have meant demand collapse, not substitution (it held); a post-repeal recovery above half the loss would have meant elastic return (it was 7%).

Cite this

In print: “A 13-month tariff moved the laptop industry out of China — repealing it brought almost nothing back” — a pre-registered event study by the Trimtab US Trade Ledger, ruled 2026-08-06, from US Census port records and 174,440 vessel stays (NOAA AIS, 2018–2024) — trimtabist.com/atlas/laptop-exodus
For the record: Event Atlas · laptop-exodus · CONFIRMED · ruled 2026-08-06

This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the original stays on the record.

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