· 2024-01 → 2026-06 · verdict: CONFIRMED
Chapters under Section 232 sectoral measures {72,73,74,76,87} retained ≥65% of their tariff increase (2024 baseline → 2025-09..2026-01 peak → 2026-04..06), while non-232 major chapters {84,85,61,62,94,95} retained ≤55%. Chapters with peak below baseline excluded and disclosed. Registered 2026-08-09 before the run.
The de-escalation was not across the board — it sorted by legal authority. The 232 sectors kept their increase: aluminium 100% retained (48.5% collected today), steel articles 88%, steel 85%, autos 72%, copper 70%. The IEEPA-driven chapters gave half or more back: machinery 47%, electronics 45%, knit apparel 47%, woven apparel 43%, toys 28% — and furniture fell below its 2024 baseline (−9% retention, disclosed). Two clean fans, no overlap: you can read the statute from the cash register.
Any overlap between the two groups’ retention ranges would have broken the authority-sorting claim; measured ranges were 70–100% vs −9–47%.
This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the original stays on the record.
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