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January 2022: the queue didn’t shrink, it was hidden

mechanism · 2020-10 → 2022-06 · verdict: MECHANISM FOUND — RICHER THAN REGISTERED

What was registered, before the data was touched

LA/Long Beach anchorage hours explode through 2021, peaking around Jan 2022 with the famous 109-ship queue.

What the record shows

Anchorage hours ran a 5–7,000 h/month baseline, then exploded to ~39,000 hours in Aug–Oct 2021 — six to seven times normal. Then, in January 2022 — the very month the record 109-ship queue was reported — our anchorage hours collapsed to 5,496 while the number of anchor stays hit its own record (863). Dwell per stay fell 57 h → 6.4 h. That is the fingerprint of the SAQA offshore queuing rule (Nov 16, 2021), which ordered waiting ships to loiter 150+ miles offshore — beyond the near-port anchorages we observe. The queue didn’t shrink; it was moved out of sight, exactly as the policy intended. The Marine Exchange’s 109 count was the offshore loiterers. Scope note: our instrument sees near-port anchorages; the pre-registered “Jan 2022 peak” verdict is therefore confirmed in the harbour record until Nov 2021, and confounded by design after it.

39k 20k 2020-01: 7.9k hours2020-02: 6.2k hours2020-03: 7.1k hours2020-04: 9.2k hours2020-05: 5.1k hours2020-06: 5.5k hours2020-07: 7.2k hours2020-08: 6.6k hours2020-09: 5.2k hours2020-10: 12k hours2020-11: 15k hours2020-12: 19k hours2021-01: 23k hours2021-02: 20k hours2021-03: 18k hours2021-04: 30k hours2021-05: 23k hours2021-06: 17k hours2021-07: 23k hours2021-08: 39k hours2021-09: 35k hours2021-10: 39k hours2021-11: 34k hours2021-12: 25k hours2022-01: 5.5k hours2022-02: 9.5k hours2022-03: 11k hours2022-04: 11k hours2022-05: 11k hours2022-06: 7.0k hours2022-07: 12k hours2022-08: 12k hours2022-09: 10k hours2022-10: 12k hours2022-11: 9.2k hours2022-12: 11k hours 11k 2020-012021-062022-12
Anchorage hours/month at LA–Long Beach, container ships ≥150 m, 2020–2022. The Jan 2022 cliff is the SAQA rule moving the queue offshore, not the queue ending.
57 28 2021-06: 31 h/stay2021-07: 37 h/stay2021-08: 57 h/stay2021-09: 42 h/stay2021-10: 49 h/stay2021-11: 37 h/stay2021-12: 55 h/stay2022-01: 6 h/stay2022-02: 10 h/stay2022-03: 14 h/stay2022-04: 22 h/stay2022-05: 25 h/stay2022-06: 14 h/stay 14 2021-062021-122022-06
Hours per anchor stay, LA–Long Beach. 57 h in Aug 2021 → 6.4 h in Jan 2022: ships stopped waiting at anchor because the waiting moved 150+ miles out.

What would prove this wrong

If dwell-per-stay had stayed high while hours fell, the January drop would have meant a genuine queue collapse — it didn’t.

Cite this

In print: “January 2022: the queue didn’t shrink, it was hidden” — a pre-registered event study by the Trimtab US Trade Ledger, ruled 2026-08-06, from US Census port records and 174,440 vessel stays (NOAA AIS, 2018–2024) — trimtabist.com/atlas/hidden-queue
For the record: Event Atlas · hidden-queue · MECHANISM FOUND — RICHER THAN REGISTERED · ruled 2026-08-06

This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the original stays on the record.

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