The goods-demand unwind cuts LA/LB volumes hard from late summer 2022; both instruments should fall together.
What the record shows
Berth hours at LA–Long Beach fell from 8,885 in May 2022 to 3,653 in December
— a 59% collapse in seven months — while census tonnage fell 5,325 kt → 3,718 kt
in near-lockstep. Two instruments, different machinery, the same curve: the strongest month-scale
agreement in the panel, and the mirror image of the 2021 boom it unwound.
Container-ship berth hours/month at LA–Long Beach terminals (observed, NOAA AIS).Containerised imports through LA–Long Beach, kt/month (reported, US Census).
What would prove this wrong
The instruments diverging (physics falling while census held, or vice versa) would have flagged either a measurement fault or a phantom collapse.
Cite this
In print: “The 2022 freight collapse, in physics and in paperwork” — a pre-registered event study
by the Trimtab US Trade Ledger, ruled 2026-08-06, from US Census port records and 174,440 vessel
stays (NOAA AIS, 2018–2024) — trimtabist.com/atlas/freight-collapse-2022 For the record: Event Atlas · freight-collapse-2022 · CONFIRMED · ruled 2026-08-06
This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new
data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the
original stays on the record.