published null · 2018-19 vs 2023-24, LA/LB vs five untreated gateways · verdict: NULL — THE POLICY LEFT NO TRACE
The Oct 13, 2021 White House 24/7-operations push targeted LA/Long Beach. If it durably changed operations, the share of berthings starting in local night hours (22:00–06:00) at LA/LB rises from its 2018-19 baseline to 2023-24 by at least +4pp more than at untreated East/Gulf gateways. Chaos years 2020–2022 excluded. Registered 2026-08-07 with the direction stated in advance.
It did not. Night-time berthing at LA–Long Beach was 36.0% before the policy and 34.0% after — slightly LOWER — while the five untreated gateways sat at exactly 30.1% in both windows (n = 21,700 calls; that stability is itself a validation of the instrument). The difference-in-differences effect is −2.0 points against a pre-registered bar of +4. Whatever the 24/7 announcement changed — gate hours, truck appointments, press coverage — it did not change when ships actually come alongside. One honesty note preserved for the record: our exploratory probe first showed a dramatic +9-point rise, which turned out to be a timezone artifact (UTC hours read as local). The registered study uses local time; the artifact is documented and discarded. Nulls and mistakes both get printed here.
Share of container-terminal berthings starting 22:00–06:00 local time; 2018-19 vs 2023-24, chaos years excluded.
This IS the falsification: the registered "policy worked" hypothesis failed the data at every gateway, and is recorded as failed.
This study is a frozen artifact: the ruling and its exhibits do not change when new data lands. If the verdict is ever revised, the revision is printed here with its reason, and the original stays on the record.
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